Is Trump’s Nomination Now Inevitable? (2023)

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michael barbaro

Hey, it’s Michael. If you listen to podcasts, which we know you do because you’re here, you know that the biggest challenge is finding great stuff to listen to. The Times wants to make that a lot easier. We’re launching an audio app, NYT Audio, a single place where you can find the shows you already know and love, like The Daily, This American Life, Serial, The Run-Up, and discover a bunch of new shows that you can’t get anywhere else.

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From The New York Times, I’m Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today, as Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to enter the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, he’s polling well below the leading candidate, former President Donald Trump.

It’s a very different picture than just a few months ago when midterm voters embraced DeSantis and his brand of cultural conservatism while overwhelmingly rejecting extremism and Trump. My colleague, Astead Herndon, host of our politics podcast, The Run-Up, has been reporting on how we got from there to here, when Trump’s nomination has started to feel almost inevitable. It’s Monday, May 22.

It’s nice to see you in person.

astead herndon

It’s nice to see you, too. Last we were in this room was the midterm election night.

michael barbaro

That’s right. That was almost a year ago?

astead herndon

Definitely not a year ago. Yeah. [LAUGHS]

michael barbaro

Six months — I think, actually, someone is helpfully telling me that it was only six months ago.

astead herndon

Yeah, yeah, definitely.

michael barbaro

Well, let’s go back to that moment. I mean, the last time you were on the show, right after the midterm elections, I distinctly remember you saying that while the result of that midterm election was a clear rejection of Donald Trump by general election voters, that didn’t mean that Trumpism was over. And the question that you posed, heading into the next election, the 2024 presidential cycle, was what’s the Republican Party going to do with a disappointing set of results and with the person who ushered in those disappointing results — Donald Trump?

astead herndon

Yeah. I mean, I looked back at that night and there was that feeling that Donald Trump had been diminished by the electorate. You had congressional leaders and conservative media asking an open question about whether Donald Trump was still the leader of the party. Because the Republican results were so far from their expectations, I think there was a natural political question to say —

michael barbaro

Is this thing over?

astead herndon

— is this the time then when folks turn the page on Trump? But at the same time, I felt like I couldn’t ignore my own reporting, which is that Trumpism is so deeply ingrained in the Republican Party that even something like the midterm results, it’s not inherently clear that that’s enough for it to be cut out.

So I set off to understand what the midterm’s impact on Trump’s power was. And are we now looking at a Republican Party where he is still the overwhelmingly dominant political figure, or are we looking at a Republican Party where, post-midterms, the ground was really open for a new leader to emerge?

michael barbaro

Right. And there’s one person in particular I remember very clearly in that moment that people are starting to look to as somebody who could take advantage of this weaker Trump.

astead herndon

Yeah, totally. We’re talking of Ron DeSantis, right?

michael barbaro

Yeah, yeah.

astead herndon

I mean, yeah. I mean, Governor Ron DeSantis, because he had a good midterms night, was hoisted into the position of Donald Trump alternative almost immediately. And for a Republican Party where some folks have been looking for a way to turn the page for a long time, he really embodied a lot of those hopes.

michael barbaro

Right. And of course, things have changed a tremendous amount since then. So let’s understand, Astead, how we got to this moment, where things seem flipped on their head, from that place you just described. So tell us where you start your reporting and why.

astead herndon

Well, we were thinking about how to untangle this question. Where are the places in the Republican Party that the leadership and the decision makers would be wrestling with both the reality of Trump’s power and the reality of his drag on the party’s ability to win? And what emerged for us was the RNC winter meeting in January in Dana Point, California.

This is a gathering of Republican insiders, the folks who actually make the decisions about how to set up the primary process. And this was their first party gathering since the midterm elections.

michael barbaro

Right. The embers are still smoldering.

astead herndon

The embers are still smoldering. And what we found when we got there was a universal recognition of the party’s disappointing results. No one was in confusion that the red wave was promised, that the conditions were there, and that they failed to seize on it.

michael barbaro

Right. So when you arrive, this is a party that knows it’s losing, and in theory, this is going to be the place, this RNC meeting, where party officials start to scheme about how they’re going to win again and whether that requires ditching Donald Trump.

astead herndon

Exactly. It was the unspoken elephant in every room, that Donald Trump was part of the reason that Republicans had had such losses. And for different spaces of the party, they were having much different reactions to that information.

astead herndon

Can you just say your name and where you —

john fredericks

Yeah.

astead herndon

Just for the —

john fredericks

John Fredericks. I am the Godzilla of truth in America. You can follow me @jfradioshow.

astead herndon

The first person I meet at that winter meeting was a man named John Fredericks. He’s a big Trump-embodied radio host in Virginia. And he was hosting a forum at that RNC event that was meant to really put pressure on the Republican insiders, saying, hey, the Trump base is still here and, I think really importantly, we are not embarrassed by those results. When we went to them, they had a clear explanation for why Republicans didn’t do as well as they did.

michael barbaro

Which is what?

john fredericks

If you want to blame Trump, don’t vote for him in the upcoming primaries. That’s your choice. You can do that, if you think he’s the reason. I happen to not think he is. But she is the chairman of the Republican National Committee.

astead herndon

They thought the establishment side of Republicans, I’m talking the party apparatus, the RNC, including its chair, Ronna McDaniel, and the Senate coffers of money that come out of D.C. They felt that they had not adequately supported the Trump candidates in the midterm election.

astead herndon

I guess a question I have is, how are those five elections her fault but they’re not Donald Trump’s fault? Why does she get blamed for those elections —

john fredericks

Because she’s the chairman of the RNC. She’s done nothing on ballot harvesting, she hasn’t done anything in any of the critical areas.

astead herndon

That people like Kari Lake or Herschel Walker or Blake Masters would have all done better if the Republican Party had united around them.

john fredericks

It’s just one big ring of consultants paying each other for this, that, TV ads, et cetera. And so they’re all making money.

astead herndon

And other than that, you had party leadership calling them bad candidates publicly and, more importantly, not giving them the data and money that could have been at their disposal. And so they really blamed the mechanics of the Republican Party for not adequately rallying around the Trump candidates. And that was the reason this group said they lost.

(Video) Is Trump's Nomination Now Inevitable?

michael barbaro

So to the degree that Fredericks is a proxy for the Trump base, the base is not seeing Trump or the issues he cared about, like election denialism, as what cost the party these midterm elections. It’s the Republican Party that’s responsible for that.

astead herndon

Absolutely. It is an argument that it’s very convenient for them, because it does not require them to blame Trump or require them to blame the messages that those candidates gave. But it allows them to continue a proxy war that’s been happening in the Republican Party for a long time, where the Trump base really sees its role as overtaking the Republican establishment. And they were really clearly expressing that.

john fredericks

We’re trying to take over the Republican Party because what it represents right now is the Mitt Romney elites. We go to the infield of NASCAR and grill hot dogs, and Mitt Romney goes to the box of the owner of the Jets. That’s the disconnect. And eventually, we’re going to take over the Republican Party as a vehicle, as a vehicle for our movement.

astead herndon

In my talk to Fredricks, he said that Donald Trump had gotten so many people involved in the party on the base level, that the top levels of Republican leadership needed to defer to them, but didn’t. And that they were the ones living in the past and not really dealing with the reality, which is that Trumpism is the party and therefore requires being supported as the party’s dominant message.

That’s what they felt was the disconnect that led to the midterms losses. It was a Republican establishment that was not willing to go all in on Trump, not that Trump, and those messages, had caused the losses. But there’s another really important thing that Fredericks told me at that event.

john fredericks

People have changed.

astead herndon

And it was that this is a different type of Trump grassroots in 2023 than it was in 2022.

john fredericks

The movement has eclipsed all of its current leaders. That’s what you’re not —

astead herndon

Including Donald Trump?

john fredericks

It’s eclipsed them all. This is not defined any more by its leaders, that’s the most important thing to realize. And the movement itself is becoming the “it.”

astead herndon

And that’s because the Trump base, as he says, sees itself as bigger and more distinct from Donald Trump as a campaign and candidate than they did before. And I think this is an important point to understand, is that for a long time, we’ve thought of this as a clear causational relationship, that Donald Trump and his campaign says a message and that millions of these voters follow that.

michael barbaro

Right. Kind of robotically respond.

astead herndon

Robotically respond to that message that he is dictating the political priorities of this base. But when I talk to Fredericks at the RNC event, he said that a couple of things have changed. One is that there have been some policy breaks between the Trump base and Donald Trump as a candidate. One of the things that came up at the RNC was that Donald Trump embraced the vaccines, and that’s something this based did not like.

michael barbaro

Trump was too progressive on —

astead herndon

Too pro-vaccine.

michael barbaro

— vaccines and COVID.

astead herndon

Yes. Too pro-vaccine.

michael barbaro

Not everyone’s understanding of the situation.

astead herndon

And among that group, Donald Trump was too pro-vaccine and to pro-COVID mandates while in office. And so I think if you want to think of it as like a Frankenstein figure, the vaccine is a moment where they realized they get sentience. That there is a — that they realized that there is something maybe different than the person who made them. That’s one break from him as a political figure. The other break that was really important was they were mentioning the speaker fight.

michael barbaro

In the House?

astead herndon

In the House. And how when Kevin McCarthy was seeking to get the gavel for the Republican majority in the House, remember, Donald Trump endorsed him early. But it was a GOP base that was led by Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Fox figures like Tucker Carlson at the time, who really went over the recommendation of Trump to maintain distance from McCarthy and get more concessions out of them.

And when I was asking them about this, they said that this was another moment that became clear to them that they are acting in their own America first priorities. That, yes, that overlaps with Donald Trump, but they’re not scared to go past Donald Trump, they’re not scared to push Trump as a candidate and campaign. And that the speaker fight was a proof of that.

michael barbaro

Right. And it seems like what you’re describing is a moment where — and this is very intriguing — to Trump’s grassroots base, this movement he’s created, he is starting to seem a little bit like the establishment, right?

astead herndon

Yes, absolutely. I think this is, again, really critical nuance of Trump. This version versus Trump previous versions. He’s now been president for four years. There’s a lot of relationships that are mixed in with the GOP leadership and establishment.

These are all these little instances that created a distance between Donald Trump’s grassroots base and Donald Trump as a candidate and political figure. And when we were at the RNC talking to folks in the crowd, there was a real openness to seeing other candidates. One person who we talked to I remember saying, I’m for anyone who’s America first.

They were seeing those priorities as really their political guiding light, not following the specific personality of Donald Trump. That’s an important distinction, I think, to understand where this race started off as. You have a significant portion of Republicans who want a America First message but that can be distinct from wanting Donald Trump. And that’s part of the reason DeSantis was showing a lot of real early promise in those post-midterm stages.

michael barbaro

So, at this moment, we have the grassroots unchastened by the midterm results, emboldened even by them, not blaming Trump for them, but we also have this group of voters saying, we’re bigger than Trump, and potentially being open to an alternative like DeSantis. So, what’s the significance of this when it comes to understanding how the party is going to handle Donald Trump going forward?

astead herndon

An important thing to remember about the type of people who go to the RNC winter meeting, the delegates that represent the Republican Party, is that they’re thinking about what’s best for the GOP at large. And when you talk to these people, they say they have this really difficult task to navigate, which is the reality that 30 percent to 35 percent of the party is unshakably with Donald Trump. And they also have the reality that that is not enough people to win.

michael barbaro

A general election.

astead herndon

That it’s not enough people to win the general election. And more so than that, that the priorities of that 30 percent to 35 percent might be opposed to the type of people that they need to win in a general election. And so when you talk to people about moving on from Donald Trump, they would hit you with a gut check.

astead herndon

How are you doing?

henry barbour

Astead, hey, Henry Barbour. Nice to meet you.

astead herndon

I’m thinking about a man we talked to whose name is Henry Barbour.

michael barbaro

The son of Governor Haley Barbour?

astead herndon

The nephew of Governor Haley Barbour.

michael barbaro

It’s a big family.

astead herndon

Big family.

henry barbour

Oddly enough, I ended up becoming an RNC member in ‘05. It’s a pretty long time since the middle of that George W. administration.

astead herndon

That’s so many different versions of the Republican Party. How have you maintained RNC credibility throughout all of those changes?

henry barbour

Well, we have all kinds of incredible members on the RNC. I’m more of a political hack. I’m real driven by one goal for the RNC. And that’s winning elections. It’s the only statistic that matters.

astead herndon

And he was someone who was really seen as a trusted figure about how does the party win elections, going forward. And when we posed this question to him, saying, “How do you deal with the reality that the Trump base might be losing you elections?” He says very clearly that being anti-Trump is a non-starter for Republicans.

henry barbour

Anybody who has a plan, and the foundation of it is anti-Trump, has gotten out a clue. Because that is a path to losing. I know we need Donald Trump to be part this, part of our success.

(Video) Biden: It'd Be 'Fun' to Watch Trump & DeSantis in 2024 Election

astead herndon

He’s recognizing the reality that Donald Trump has so changed the issues that most Republican voters prioritize that there’s no version of winning, particularly in a primary, and even in the general election, that doesn’t energize and activate that core base of people. But at the same time, that same group of people has caused the party to drift away from the type of issues that motivate swing voters, that motivate the people in the middle who really rejected them in the last midterm elections.

henry barbour

So I think if you look at the ‘22 cycle, I think there’s a lesson for the ‘24 cycle. Our candidates who were focused on the future, who were focused on public policy, did much, much better in the ‘22 cycle than the candidates who were stuck in the past, and particularly those who were just talking about 2020.

astead herndon

What Barbour is saying is that somehow the Republicans need to square that circle, need to energize and activate the base while, at the same time, making sure that they aren’t pushed in directions that pulled them further away from swing voters and caused them to lose. To win, Barbour says, you need both, not either or.

henry barbour

And so I want to have that Reaganesque leader who we nominate in 2024, who brings us together, who independents flock to, who moderate Democrats go, I’m voting for that guy because I want the opportunity that this guy or gal are offering.

astead herndon

If that leader comes through the primary, they will fall in line?

henry barbour

Yeah. And the reality is look at 2016. That’s what happened with Donald Trump. The party followeth behind him. And I think the press wonders we all are never going to get rid of Donald Trump, you’re never going to move on. We’re not trying to get rid of Donald Trump. But all we know is, is we have to move forward together if we want to win. Trump can be part of this ‘24 victory. Whether he’s the nominee or not, we need Donald Trump, we need the people who love Donald Trump. We need him to be part of the solution if we’re going to win. Because if we don’t come together, I can assure you we’re going to have Joe Biden for four more years, and America ain’t going to like that.

michael barbaro

So rather than trying to find a way forward after these midterm losses without Trump, rather than putting their fingers on the scale, maybe a little bit signaling it’s time for someone new, someone like DeSantis, the party’s message in January is we want Trump and Trump supporters to come with us on this forward-looking journey, and we want everyone else as well. The question, of course, is how on earth do you do that? Because the components of that are very contradictory.

astead herndon

Absolutely. It was all vibes and no specifics.

michael barbaro

But Astead, we’re still left with this really intriguing situation that I want you to resolve for us, which is that this grassroots base, it’s still got a wary relationship to Trump himself, which you described earlier. Suddenly this grassroots base is feeling like they don’t need to do exactly what Trump says.

astead herndon

Yes.

michael barbaro

So how does that factor into this moment?

astead herndon

When we were talking to Trump supporters, even at the RNC, while they weren’t publicly expressing any problems with Trump and/or blaming the Republican establishment for the losses, they were privately telling us that they do believe that the version of Donald Trump that came out of the 2020 race and came into the 2022 midterms was much more focused on his own personal grievances and settling the score of his own election loss rather than what I think they would often refer to in shorthand as 2016 version of Donald Trump, which was certainly grievance-driven but representing a larger community.

michael barbaro

Right. He was aggrieved on behalf of them.

astead herndon

He was aggrieved on behalf of the little guy and whatever you think that is.

michael barbaro

Not just him.

astead herndon

But not just him, it was a manufacturing grievance, it was an America first in economic sense.

michael barbaro

It was the wall grievance.

astead herndon

It was the wall grievance, it was all of that. But he was a vessel for a larger, unseen, quote, unquote, “forgotten” Americans. They felt that that message had gotten lost from 2020 to 2022, where it became about Donald Trump and his own election loss.

And so if they had a critique of him and how they wanted to see him shift heading into 2024, what we were hearing in that January period was they wanted to hear him back to being refocused on their grievances, not his own. And so that was the mandate we were hearing from Trump’s supporters in that early period. Walking past like a table full of hats.

astead herndon

We’ve got, “Let’s Go Brandon,” “Trump Won.”

astead herndon

And we really see this explicitly in early March when we go to the CPAC.

astead herndon

“Make America Florida,” “Don’t New York my Florida.”

astead herndon

The Conservative Political Action Conference, the big grassroots gathering of right-wing activists that happens outside of Washington D.C.

astead herndon

Oh, the right stuff. This is a dating app for conservatives. Nice. I’m sure it is popping this weekend.

astead herndon

And this is traditionally a bellwether of where the energy on the presidential race is.

astead herndon

What are your guys’ names?

amanda

Amanda.

jeannie sylvia

Jeannie Sylvia.

astead herndon

When we got there and talked to voters, they were expressing similar things to what we heard at the RNC winter meeting.

jeannie sylvia

100 percent he needs to just — we all know. Yes, focus more on what he’s going to do in the future and how he’s going to make the country great again.

astead herndon

That they were looking to see if Donald Trump had moved past his personal grievances.

astead herndon

What do you hope he talks about?

jeannie sylvia

The economy.

astead herndon

And when we were asking what did they want, that was really clear at the conference, too.

jeannie sylvia

Close the border. I mean — and then also, too, get rid of this whole Russia and Ukraine war. That’s just dumb. This would have never happened under him.

astead herndon

A clear expression that the country is being rested by liberal elites.

jeannie sylvia

There’s only two genders, and I don’t like the drag shows they’re bringing their kids to. That’s not right.

astead herndon

That’s being threatened by progressive social movements like Black Lives Matter or the growth of trans rights.

jeannie sylvia

I think it’s disgusting, actually. And it’s hurting our kids and now the future.

astead herndon

And so all of those became very clearly identifiable priorities for this group. That they were seeking the candidate to reflect. And so when you got to Trump’s speech, which was the last thing to happen at that conference, the question I had going into this speech, is would this be a candidate that reflects those priorities?

Would this be a candidate that understands that there is a gap, a weakness, a distance between him and the base he’s so associated with? And would he reflect what they were asking him to do, which was close that gap?

audience

USA!

(Video) Chris Hayes to Trump opponents: He is not inevitable

donald trump

Thank you very much. And I’m thrilled to be back at CPAC with thousands of great and true American patriots. And that’s what you are.

audience

[CHEERING]:

astead herndon

And I think when we heard that speech —

donald trump

For seven years, you and I have been engaged in an epic struggle to rescue our country from the people who hate it and want to absolutely destroy it.

astead herndon

— it was a box-checking, one-by-one, of those priorities.

donald trump

I will revoke every Biden policy promoting the chemical castration and sexual mutilization.

audience

[CHEERING]:

astead herndon

You heard Donald Trump go through the type of cultural grievances they were concerned about —

donald trump

We will teach you our values and promote our history and our traditions to our children. We will, in other words, be proud of our country again.

audience

[CHEERING]:

astead herndon

— make clear he was the champion of their expression of America first.

donald trump

We’ll be stopping the slide into costly and never ending wars. We’ve got to stop it. We can’t keep spending.

astead herndon

And when you hear those things in the context of the conference, I think it has a different resonance.

donald trump

In 2016 I declared, “I am your voice.” Today I add, I am your warrior, I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I am your retribution.

audience

[CHEERING]:

astead herndon

Let’s take the “I am your retribution” line that got such national attention from that speech. In isolation, you hear a candidate promising to use the powers of the federal government to attack their opponents. But when you’re in that context, you hear a little more than that, too.

michael barbaro

What do you hear?

astead herndon

You hear him saying that those grievances you reflect, I understand and I will prioritize when given power. So it’s not just a scattershot expression from him. It is a specific response to a base that was calling for him to be their vessel. That’s what they wanted from Donald Trump. And that’s what they heard at CPAC.

donald trump

And we will make America great again

audience

[CHEERING]:

donald trump

Thank you very much. Keep guard of our country Thank you very much.

michael barbaro

So when we think about the journey we’ve been on that starts at the RNC, with the grassroots saying that they have some concerns about Trump, they have some low level wariness, this is a big milestone moment in that journey. Because Trump is saying back to them, I’ve heard you, I’ve heard your wariness, I’ve heard some of your concerns. And he’s saying, my grievances are your grievances once again. I can adjust. I can be this thing you need me to be. And he seems like he’s doing that pretty successfully.

astead herndon

Right, exactly.

speaker 1

It’s that time of the year again, Jim. The poll that gets it all started.

astead herndon

And this bond between candidate and base is most clearly expressed in the straw poll that comes out of CPAC. This is a tradition that happens at this conference where they informally ask the attendees who they would want their presidential nominee to be. And Trump was always the favorite to win this straw poll. But this year —

speaker 2

The numbers kind of speak for themselves.

astead herndon

You saw him really clobber DeSantis.

speaker 2

62 percent to 20 percent over Ron DeSantis, President Trump gets 62 percent.

astead herndon

And it’s not as if the people there hated Ron DeSantis. The people we talk to who are at CPAC frankly thought Ron DeSantis was a great governor that they thought understood their grievances. But they felt that that did not add up to a reason to ditch Donald Trump.

And I think even more importantly, that really doesn’t add up for a reason to ditch Donald Trump when Donald Trump is reflecting their priorities and doing so at that conference. And so whereas, I think, after the midterms, there was even a question of just, OK, what is the starting point for Trump’s support? I think, already by early March, that curiosity was already feeling like it was starting to shift. That even if someone assumes that the midterms will be fatal for Trump, it was not.

michael barbaro

We’ll be right back.

Astead, we just talked about this idea that the Trump base, 30 percent, 35 percent of the Republican electorate, has now been resolidified behind Trump. And that seems very much at odds with the idea that has now become conventional wisdom, that Trump is looking more or less inevitable to be renominated as a Republican presidential candidate. Because that actually leaves a huge percentage of the Republican electorate still up for grabs.

astead herndon

Yup. And I think it’s because we have to understand these numbers in a more specific way. When you have 30 percent to 35 percent of the Trump base, of course that leaves 65 percent, maybe 70 percent, of people who are we would categorize and that construction as anti-Trump. When you look under the hood, that 65 percent, 70 percent dislikes Trump for very different reasons. They can include moderates who think that he is a scary political figure from an ideological perspective.

They include people who dislike him from a personality-driven perspective and have no problem with how far to the right he is. And so the reasons they are anti-Trump are sometimes in conflict. And so the challenge for someone who is trying to put together a coalition of those people, is how do you cobble together a big enough percentage while, at the same time, uniting them under one banner and under one candidate?

michael barbaro

In your reporting, how have you seen this challenge of a Republican candidate trying to cobble together these disparate elements of the anti-Trump coalition? How have you seen that play out?

astead herndon

I think this is where Ron DeSantis is a really helpful figure to look at. Because he is someone who has done the most explicit appeals to all sides of the Republican Party.

archived recording (ron desantis)

We have maintained law and order. We have respected our taxpayers, and we reject woke ideology.

audience

[CHEERING]:

astead herndon

He has tried to appeal to the MAGA base.

archived recording (ron desantis)

Florida is where woke goes to die.

astead herndon

He has tried to appeal to moderates.

archived recording (ron desantis)

Governing is not about building a brand or talking on social media and virtue signaling. It’s ultimately about winning and about producing results.

(Video) Will Ron DeSantis be the next Republican nominee for US President? | The Drum | ABC News

astead herndon

By saying that he would not bring the drama that the Trump presidency brought.

archived recording (ron desantis)

You know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I just — I can’t speak to that.

astead herndon

The problem is, that’s much easier said in the abstract than in the specifics. When you look at things like, for example, should the Republican nominee be supportive of more aid to Ukraine? That’s something that really splits those group of people.

And you saw this really challenge Ron DeSantis. He put out a statement saying he did not feel Ukraine should be a strategic priority. And that got real blowback from the donor class, from candidates like Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, and specifically because they know that that’s at odds with the type of voters on one side of the ledger that he needs to get.

That’s the challenge of the coalition building. You end up pissing off one side or the other or creating openings for your opponents to seize on. It is why Donald Trump remains a front runner even with a minority of support, is because his 30 percent to 35 percent of people are ideologically homogeneous and unified around his message.

michael barbaro

Right. Because someone like Ron DeSantis, it looks so easy on paper. Get 36 percent of the Republican base. But you’re saying that’s so much harder to do in reality because of an issue like Ukraine, which looks like it might get you X percent but that it pisses off Y percents, or maybe actually, that just canceled itself out.

astead herndon

Right, exactly.

michael barbaro

But what about DeSantis’s anti-woke campaign? It’s kind of the signature of the DeSantis emerging candidacy. And that really did look like a very savvy place to focus. It’s not Ukraine, it’s something that many Republicans polling suggests can get behind.

astead herndon

Yeah, absolutely. And this is the reason why Ron DeSantis is not one of the also-rans in this race. Because he has found an issue that gets a lot of Republicans on board and because he has distinguished himself from the other candidates as being someone who will follow through on said priority.

And so when Ron DeSantis lands on his anti-wokeness campaign, he is speaking the language of this Republican Party. They are seeking a candidate that speaks in grievance, that speaks in retribution, that’s willing to use the federal government to prioritize those goals. And what DeSantis’s campaign does is place himself in that language. And so that is the good part for Ron DeSantis.

michael barbaro

Yeah. But what’s the bad part?

astead herndon

OK, what’s the bad part? Is that, that is not a message that’s in conflict with Donald Trump.

michael barbaro

It’s kind of an echo.

astead herndon

Yeah. It’s the language of the party, but become the language of the party because Donald Trump has virtually made it so. So if you’re a voter whose biggest priority is grievance, is the way to make that most true in your next Republican nominee voting for the guy who’s going to attack Disney, or is the biggest sense of retribution bringing Donald Trump back?

michael barbaro

Because ultimately, Trumpism and DeSantisism, if you can call that —

astead herndon

Can coexist.

michael barbaro

Well, they’re just two slightly different forms of cultural conservatism and grievance, but they’re not so different that a Trump base grassroots person is going to look over in DeSantis and say, yeah, I need to ditch Trump for that.

astead herndon

Right, exactly.

michael barbaro

And so do some Republicans see the flaw of DeSantis, that he’s just trying to defeat Trump by running on the issues that Trump himself brought to the fore?

astead herndon

Yeah. And this is what you have seen in reporting coming from DeSantis donors and other people who have made the argument that he has lost his electability argument, to say that, I would win and Trump would lose. Because he’s playing in Donald Trump’s sandbox.

michael barbaro

OK. But what about a candidate running for the Republican voters that don’t like Trumpism and that, as a result, is a candidate not playing in Trump’s sandbox? Are you saying that cultural grievances now run so deep within the Republican Party that there isn’t a lane for that kind of candidate who wants to focus on issues like the economy and diplomacy, not trans rights?

astead herndon

That’s exactly what I’m saying. I’m saying literally not enough Republicans exist who prioritize those type of issues for someone to run exclusively in that lane and win the nomination. The party has changed in such a way that the type of people you would need to make that candidate the nominee, they’ve become independents, some of them have become Democrats, they’ve left the party, there’s just not enough of them. And so there’s question that keeps getting asked over and over about when do Republicans turn the page on Donald Trump. It is a useless question.

michael barbaro

[LAUGHS]: You want it banned?

astead herndon

I want it banned. There is no universe where that happens, even if he loses. He can lose. And whoever that is, if it’s Ron DeSantis or someone else, would have to bring Trumpism along.

michael barbaro

But Astead, don’t we have to consider the possibility that Trumpism might have to go on without Trump because of the legal situation that he now finds himself in? We haven’t talked about it that much in this episode. But he’s been indicted in New York over the hush money payment investigation.

We know that the district attorney in Georgia is talking about potentially indicting Trump by the end of the summer. I mean, there’s a possibility Trump goes to jail in either of these cases. So, how does that factor into all of this? And doesn’t it mean that this is not just a theoretical question of Trump and Trumpism needing to separate? A court and a judge might make it happen pretty soon.

astead herndon

Yeah, absolutely. I think we definitely need to think about that possibility, because it’s the largest live ball that’s still left in the race. To your point, we have the very real possibility that Donald Trump could be criminally convicted as these indictments roll down. And at the same time, it’s really created a political problem for the race, for the other candidates who are not named Donald Trump.

There was this kind of assumption, I think, before the race started that the legal problems that Trump faced would do the work for them, would cause him to lose support among Republicans, would make him too bloody and bruised to be a viable presidential candidate. But what we saw after the New York criminal indictment came down was that Donald Trump was raising more money, was that some level of voters were coming back to him after he was attacked. That it fed into his narrative of victimhood and the idea that the federal government was trying to use its powers to shut him down.

And so the assumption that it would fall off support from Trump just hasn’t become true. And I think that’s particularly important for the two main candidates in this race. For Ron DeSantis, there’s a subtle premise to his campaign, that if Trump were to not be there, say, because of these legal challenges or because of a conviction, that DeSantis is the natural next step for where his supporters go.

But the Trump campaign thinks the exact opposite effect is going to happen. That as more of these indictments come down, it becomes harder to remove Donald Trump because more and more Republicans will rally around him. It’s two different ideas and assumptions about how the legal problems and indictments can scramble the race. And they’re all based on just best guesses. Because we’re in such uncharted territory, we really have no idea how this is going to play out.

michael barbaro

So DeSantis’s position here is really interesting. He might be running against Trump directly. And he’s also positioning himself for the possibility of running in place of Trump, in which case, he has to be respectful of Trump, respectful enough so that he can stand there and operate as his political heir.

astead herndon

It’s a legitimately difficult tightrope. I mean, we should not underplay that. And when you talk to Trump supporters, you see why. You’ll ask them about Ron DeSantis and they will say largely positive things about him. That he’s their number two, if we could think ranked choice voting style.

But they will also say that if someone becomes anti-Trump or if Ron DeSantis positions himself as someone who’s making what they would believe is like liberal arguments against Trump, that will make him an enemy, not an ally, in the overall war of Trump politics. And so if you’re Ron DeSantis, your dream version of the race is one where you are naturally handed the baton to the Trump coalition. But the reality has been, that core support has stuck with Donald Trump. And to me, this adds up to a really important point. Because what we’re really talking about here is, what are the terms in which this presidential race will be run on? I think for a lot of people, the last time they were plugged into politics was the night of midterm elections, where they saw a country send a unified message to both parties, to reject extremism on the Republican side, to make clear that issues like election denial and conspiracy were a step too far, to really ask the political system to turn the page on Trumpism.

And I think for a lot of people, there is a uncomfortable reality that is about to hit them. That that system is set to ignore that message, and we are set to deal with another year and a half on the same kind of terms of Trump and Trumpism, no matter who the Republican nominee is. Because that is so entrenched now. That’s all at the core of all of our national politics. And I think the big gulf between what people said they wanted in the midterms, and what people are about to get in this presidential race, is going to drive home that disconnect really clearly.

michael barbaro

Well, Astead, thank you very much.

astead herndon

Thank you.

michael barbaro

You can hear all of Astead’s reporting on the 2024 presidential campaign on The Times podcast, The Run-Up. We’ll be right back.

Here’s what else you need to know today.

Over the weekend, Russia appeared to effectively win control of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the scene of the deadliest battle in the 15-month war. If Russian troops can hold the eastern city, it would mark Russia’s most successful battlefield advance since last summer. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that no matter what happens to the city, quote, “There is nothing of Bakhmut left after months of fierce fighting there.”

Meanwhile, in response to the newest round of U.S sanctions against Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sanctioned Americans who are perceived as enemies of Donald Trump, the latest evidence that Russia favors Trump over President Biden in the next US election. Among the 500 people that Russia sanctioned were Letitia James, the State Attorney General of New York who has investigated and sued Trump; Brad Raffensperger, the Secretary of State of Georgia who rebuffed Trump’s effort to reverse the result of the 2020 election; and Lieutenant Michael Byrd, the U.S. Capitol Police Officer who shot a pro-Trump rioter on January 6.

Today’s episode was produced by Luke Vander Ploeg, Michael Simon Johnson, Clare Toeniskoetter, Carlos Prieto, and Caitlin O’Keefe. It was edited by Rachel Quester, Lisa Tobin, and Anita Badejo, contains original music from Marion Lozano and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

And just a reminder, all this week, you’re going to see our new show, The Headlines, right here in The Daily Feed. We made it for you. I hope you like it. To find it, go to nytimes.com/audioapp. That’s it for The Daily. I’m Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

(Video) Why Some Legal Experts Think A Trump Indictment Is Inevitable

FAQs

Who is predicted to be president in 2024? ›

Top 5 Candidates, 2024 US Presidential Election
1️⃣ Joe Biden+15040.0%
2️⃣ Donald Trump+25028.6%
3️⃣ Ron DeSantis+50016.7%
4️⃣ Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+20004.8%
5️⃣ Kamala Harris+25003.8%
7 days ago

When was the last presidential election held? ›

The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

When did Trump get selected? ›

On November 9, 2016, Republicans Donald Trump of New York and Governor Mike Pence of Indiana won the 2016 election, defeating Democrats former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York and Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

Who are the next 3 people in line to be President? ›

Current order of succession
No.OfficeParty
1Vice PresidentDemocratic
2Speaker of the House of RepresentativesRepublican
3President pro tempore of the SenateDemocratic
4Secretary of StateDemocratic
14 more rows

Who became President 4 times? ›

At the 1924 Democratic Convention he dramatically appeared on crutches to nominate Alfred E. Smith as “the Happy Warrior.” In 1928 Roosevelt became Governor of New York. He was elected President in November 1932, to the first of four terms.

Has any president been elected 3 times? ›

Roosevelt won a third term by defeating Republican nominee Wendell Willkie in the 1940 United States presidential election. He remains the only president to serve for more than two terms.

Can a president be elected for 8 years? ›

The Twenty-Second Amendment says a person can only be elected to be president two times for a total of eight years. It does make it possible for a person to serve up to ten years as president. This can happen if a person (most likely the Vice-President) takes over for a president who can no longer serve their term.

Who ran for president in 1920? ›

In the first election held after the end of the World War and the first election after the ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment (which gave equal votes to men and women), Republican Senator Warren G. Harding of Ohio defeated Democratic Governor James M. Cox of Ohio.

What is Donald Trump's net worth? ›

He 's nowhere near as rich as he boasts, nor as poor as his critics claim. Donald Trump's real net worth? $2.5 billion, according to our most recent tally, conducted in March 2023. Below, Forbes offers an asset-by-asset breakdown of the former president's fortune.

Who was the youngest president? ›

The youngest person to become U.S. president was Theodore Roosevelt, who, at age 42, succeeded to the office after the assassination of William McKinley. The youngest at the time of his election to the office was John F. Kennedy, at age 43.

How many times can you run for president? ›

The Twenty-second Amendment (Amendment XXII) to the United States Constitution limits the number of times a person is eligible for election to the office of President of the United States to two, and sets additional eligibility conditions for presidents who succeed to the unexpired terms of their predecessors.

Which president had 15 children? ›

John Tyler was the most prolific of all American President: he had 15 children and two wives. In 1813, Tyler married Letitia Christian, the daughter of a Virginia planter. They had eight children.

Who becomes president if the president is unable to serve? ›

The vice president of the United States presides over the U.S. Senate and takes over the role of president of the United States if the president is unable to perform his or her duties.

Who is 4th in line for presidency? ›

The Secretary holds the most senior position in the President's Cabinet. If the President were to resign or die, the Secretary of State is fourth in line of succession after the Vice President, the Speaker of the House, and the President pro tempore of the Senate.

Who ran for president 7 times? ›

LaRouche ran for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States seven times, beginning in 1980.

Who was president twice not in a row? ›

In the years before his presidency, he served as a mayor and governor in New York state, winning fame as an anti-corruption crusader. Cleveland is the only president in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive presidential terms. He won the popular vote in three presidential elections—1884, 1888, and 1892.

Who was the only two time president? ›

The First Democrat elected after the Civil War, Grover Cleveland was the only President to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later. One of nine children of a Presbyterian minister, Cleveland was born in New Jersey in 1837. He was raised in upstate New York.

Who was the best president? ›

Abraham Lincoln is mostly regarded as the greatest president for his leadership during the Civil War and the abolition of slavery. His main contender is Franklin D. Roosevelt, for leading the country out of the Great Depression and during World War II.

What president served the shortest term? ›

William Henry Harrison (February 9, 1773 – April 4, 1841) was an American military officer and politician who served as the ninth president of the United States. Harrison died just 31 days after his inauguration in 1841, the shortest presidency in United States history.

Which president was born in a log cabin? ›

Abraham Lincoln, 16th president of the United States, was the first president born west of the Appalachian Mountains. His birth in a log cabin at Sinking Springs Farm took place on February 12, 1809, when that part of Kentucky was still a rugged frontier.

What does the 25th Amendment do? ›

Section 1: In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Has any president not run for a second term? ›

Johnson told a shocked national television audience on the evening of March 31, 1968, thus becoming the most recent U.S. president to decide not to run for a second elected term. What's the Difference Between a President and a Prime Minister?

Who can a president serve 10 years? ›

The amendment caps the service of a president at 10 years. If a person succeeds to the office of president without election and serves less than two years, he may run for two full terms; otherwise, a person succeeding to office of president can serve no more than a single elected term.

Who was the 50th president of the United States? ›

The biography for President Harrison and past presidents is courtesy of the White House Historical Association.

Who ran for president in the late 60s? ›

John F. Kennedy, a wealthy Democratic senator from Massachusetts, was elected president in 1960, defeating Vice President Richard Nixon. Though he clearly won the electoral vote, Kennedy's received only 118,000 more votes than Nixon in this close election.

Who was president in 1916? ›

The biography for President Wilson and past presidents is courtesy of the White House Historical Association. Woodrow Wilson, a leader of the Progressive Movement, was the 28th President of the United States (1913-1921).

Who is the richest person in the United States? ›

Net worth Details
S.NameNet worth in 2023
1Jeff Bezos$195.9 billion
2Elon Musk$146.5 billion
3Bill Gates$135.8 billion
4Larry Ellison$119.5 billion
6 more rows
1 day ago

Who is the richest man in the world? ›

Who is the richest man in the world? As of May 1, 2023, the richest man in the world is Bernard Arnault, the CEO and chairman of LVMH of France; he's worth nearly $237 billion. He moved into the number one spot after Elon Musk's fortune fell in late 2022 as shares of electric carmaker Tesla fell.

Which president served the longest term? ›

William Henry Harrison spent the shortest time in office, while Franklin D. Roosevelt spent the longest. Roosevelt is the only American president to have served more than two terms.

Which president had the longest speech? ›

Harrison delivered the longest inaugural address to date, running 8,445 words. He wrote the entire speech himself, though it was edited by soon-to-be Secretary of State, Daniel Webster.

Who is the oldest president in the world currently? ›

The oldest national leader is Paul Biya of Cameroon, who was born in 1933 and took office more than 40 years ago. Biya is the only current national leader in his 90s.

How many terms did Barack Obama serve? ›

What does the 23rd Amendment say? ›

The Amendment allows American citizens residing in the District of Columbia to vote for presidential electors, who in turn vote in the Electoral College for President and Vice President. In layperson's terms, the Amendment means that residents of the District are able to vote for President and Vice President.

Who created the 22nd Amendment? ›

It was one of 273 recommendations to the U.S. Congress by the Hoover Commission, created by Pres. Harry S. Truman, to reorganize and reform the federal government. It was formally proposed by the U.S. Congress on March 24, 1947, and was ratified on Feb.

Who became president at 47? ›

Presidential age-related data
No.PresidentAge at start of presidency
42Bill Clinton46 years, 154 days Jan 20, 1993
43George W. Bush54 years, 198 days Jan 20, 2001
44Barack Obama47 years, 169 days Jan 20, 2009
42 more rows

What are the 5 requirements to be president? ›

Constitutional requirements for presidential candidates
  • Be a natural-born citizen of the United States.
  • Be at least 35 years old.
  • Have been a resident of the United States for 14 years.
Apr 6, 2023

What is the most number of years you could be president? ›

An early draft of the U.S. Constitution provided that the president was restricted to one seven-year term. Ultimately, the Framers approved four-year terms with no restriction on how many times a person could be elected president.

Who was the oldest President at death? ›

The oldest president at the time of death was George H. W. Bush, who died at the age of 94 years, 171 days. John F. Kennedy, assassinated at the age of 46 years, 177 days, was the nation's shortest-lived president; the youngest to have died by natural causes was James K.

Was Obama the 47th President? ›

Barack Obama served as the 44th President of the United States.

Who almost became President in 1800? ›

After Thomas Jefferson and his running-mate, Aaron Burr, tied in the Electoral College vote, Jefferson was elected president by the House of Representatives.

Who is the only president not to be married? ›

Tall, stately, stiffly formal in the high stock he wore around his jowls, James Buchanan was the only President who never married. Presiding over a rapidly dividing Nation, Buchanan grasped inadequately the political realities of the time.

How many U.S. presidents have had no political experience? ›

5 presidents had never been elected to public office before becoming president: Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant, Herbert Hoover, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Donald Trump. Most of these had, however, been appointed to several prominent offices.

How can a president be removed from office? ›

Article II, Section 4: The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Why can't a president serve 3 terms? ›

The Constitution had no limit on how many times a person could be elected as president. The nation's first president, George Washington chose not to try to be elected for a third term. This suggested that two terms were enough for any president.

Can a 2 term president run again? ›

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

Has there ever been a president who served two terms not consecutively? ›

Grover Cleveland served 2 non-consecutive terms as the 22nd and 24th U.S. President.

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